KAMPALA — Uganda risks returning to electricity load shedding within a year unless power generation and renewable energy investments keep pace with surging manufacturing demand, Trade, Industry, and Cooperatives Minister Sanjay Tanna has warned.
Speaking at the fifth Presidential CEOs Forum alongside Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, Tanna cautioned that rapid industrial expansion is placing unprecedented pressure on the national grid.
“Within the next few months—or at most a year—we risk returning to load shedding,” Tanna warned.
To mitigate the squeeze, Tanna urged closer coordination between the ministries of trade and energy. He advocated for heavy power consumers, particularly steel and cement manufacturers, to adopt rooftop solar systems. Under a net-metering framework, factories could power their own operations and feed excess energy back into the grid, freeing up capacity for new industrial ventures. He cited successful net-metering projects at the National Enterprise Corporation facility and GenTex as practical blueprints for the sector.
The warning comes despite Uganda’s significant expansion of its energy portfolio. Major hydropower installations—including the Karuma, Isimba, and Bujagali plants—have kept installed capacity comfortably above peak demand in recent years. However, rising industrial offtake, growing cross-border energy exports, and new large-scale consumers are rapidly eroding that surplus buffer.
Prime Minister Nabbanja acknowledged the urgency, committing to expanded generation and improved infrastructure. “We must invest heavily to ensure sufficient electricity for our growing industrial base,” she stated, noting that parallel investments in the Standard Gauge Railway aim to reduce transport costs and further bolster manufacturing.
Private-sector leaders raised additional systemic headwinds during the forum, including high borrowing costs, scarce long-term capital, and delayed government payments. Presidential CEOs Forum Managing Director Den Kayemba revealed that consultations with over 10,000 business executives yielded 229 specific bottlenecks requiring state intervention across taxation, finance, and regulation.
Addressing these hurdles, National Planning Authority Executive Director Joseph Muvawala praised initiatives like the Export Credit Guarantee Fund, but emphasized that lowering baseline costs—particularly electricity tariffs—remains critical to maintaining competitiveness.
The dialogue highlights the central challenge facing Uganda’s economic strategy: translating generation capacity into a reliable, cost-effective power supply that sustains industrial momentum without triggering shortages.
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